‘STAND AND WAIT’ NOT GOOD MARKET STRATEGY

When media reports start talking about static or falling home prices, many homebuyers think that it’s a good idea to watch the market and wait for it to reach the bottom. They feel that if they postpone their purchase long enough, they are likely to see prices fall further and snap up a ‘real bargain’.

While bargains do exist, of course, for people who are in the right place at the right time, there are often more people who miss out by using this strategy than gain.  Most homebuyers buy their family home and live in it for, on average, seven to ten years.  And when we’re looking at averages, the property market continues, in the big picture, to rise. Based on historical property cycles, property may undergo periods of static growth and periods of galloping growth, but on average, well-located, well-selected residential property doubles in value every ten years or so. Certainly, if we could always pick the lowest time to buy and the highest time to sell we would do very well indeed, but the only buyers who need worry about the immediate state of the market are the real estate speculators who wish to buy then sell again straight away, or those who are too highly geared or who have entered into unrealistic amounts of debt. For everyone else, the chances of strong long-term capital gain are virtually assured, provided they buy well-selected property in well-selected locations.

It’s famously difficult to pick the ‘bottom’ of the market. Often buyers who wait find themselves having little to choose from as listings get scarce – and a sudden flurry of competition for the few desirable properties actually on the market for sale often causes them to sell for higher prices than expected, even in a market described as a difficult one for sellers.  Buyers end up paying more than they bargained for if they  keep on watching and waiting;  because the ‘flurries’ they waited out were signalling an upturn in the market or the end of the halcyon days for buyers.

Purchasers who wait too long for a ‘bargain’ or the ‘lowest point of the market’ often only realise that the lowest point has already been reached once they can look back on it with the 20/20 vision of hindsight.

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